Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."